Brace for Impact

By Chris Gonzalez

Embrace Change. Focus on Impact.

A-G Associates began using that tagline in 2022, but its meaning has never been more relevant. We began using it because our federal clients were developing new programs or revising their current ones to meet the changing needs of their end users (customers). In many cases, each client collected an enormous amount of data which was helpful and challenging at the same time. It became a struggle to uncover which information was crucial. This is where we came up with “Focus on Impact” with the emphasis on data points that quantified the end user’s behavior rather than administrative data.

In 2025, the world seems to be changing at a rapid pace while being filled with noise and rhetoric. Change is inevitable during this fast-paced period, but many of our Federal Government clients struggle with change, finding it difficult to see new opportunities that change can present. During these periods of change, we encourage our clients to use a data-driven approach to making decisions.

The term “impact” can be measured in different ways. For social scientists, impact describes long-term behavior change measured over time. For those that work in the Federal government, the term may mean the number of people served. Among the private sector, impact measures tangible numbers like profit, market share, and return on investment. All are true.

But how do we define or determine a return on investment (ROI) for public funds? Something like an ROI analysis can provide transparency by quantifying a program’s economic and social benefits, and a whole of Government approach could be used to benefit the American people. Here’s how:

The Importance of Calculating Return on Investment for Public Programs

Public programs play a crucial role in addressing societal needs, from infrastructure development and education to healthcare and social services. However, with limited resources and growing demands, it is essential to ensure that public funds are allocated effectively. Calculating a program’s return on investment (ROI) begins with understanding the desired behaviors of the end user and quantifying the desired amount of those behaviors. For instance, for some Behavioral Health programs, the desired behavior may be an increase (of X%) of treatment services which will equal a decrease (of Y%) for crisis or emergency services. Those behaviors can then be correlated to other favorable behaviors like employment. Policy that defines the impact of public programs should then be driven by data around those behaviors.

Performance and impact need to be measured but not conflated.

To aid our clients in this process, we establish the logical relationship between outputs and outcomes via logic models. We label the outputs under the term “performance” while categorizing the outcomes with the term “impact”. We then use logic models to show the relationship between outcomes that lead to more sustained behavior change. We do this by starting with the end in mind, then asking a series of then/if questions to determine the logical courses of action and paths to desired outcomes.

In fact, A-G’s experts have developed a methodology called Expected Value – Return On Investment (EV-ROI) which allows organizations to represent the impact and outcomes produced by their programs and services in a monetized form. Monetizing the impact of program services shifts emphasis away from simply “serving” someone. EV-ROI is a predictive model that combines probability theory (expected value) with a common approach that businesses use to make informed financial decisions.

We also need to ensure fiscal responsibility.

By assessing ROI, policymakers can determine whether a program is generating sufficient benefits relative to its costs and impact on desired behaviors. This promotes accountability and transparency by showing taxpayers why public programs exist and how their contributions are being used effectively. This fosters public trust in government institutions and justifies continued funding for successful initiatives.

ROI calculations provide data-driven insights that guide Department leaders and policymakers in refining existing programs and designing new ones. By comparing different initiatives across the Government, decision-makers can prioritize investments that yield the greatest positive outcomes, ensuring that public funds are used strategically. Additionally, if a program is underperforming, adjustments can be made to enhance its effectiveness.

Conclusion

Calculating ROI is not just a financial exercise—it should be a fundamental practice that frames programs for impact to communities across the country. By ensuring that taxpayer dollars are used wisely, fostering accountability, and promoting data-driven decision-making, ROI analysis plays a critical role in shaping effective and sustainable public policies while also serving the changing needs of the American people.

A-G has a long history of helping our customers operationalize this fundamental framework. Indeed, we designed our proprietary Focus platform to facilitate this important work at scale. By providing a single-view snapshot of performance versus impact, Focus automates the ROI analysis – empowering leaders make data-informed decisions to meet essential impact objectives. If you would like to explore how Focus can support your ROI goals, or discuss how A-G can support your organization’s strategic planning, change management, data analysis, program evaluation, or stakeholder engagement needs, please feel free to reach out to me by email at CGonzalez@A-GAssociates.com or message me on LinkedIn to start to start the conversation. I would welcome the opportunity to discuss how our expert team can support your impact objectives.

About the Author

Chris Gonzalez is President and Co-Founder of A-G Associates, a Service-Disabled Veteran-Owned and SBA 8(a) organizational consulting firm that was recently recognized in the Inc 5000 and the Vet100. A U.S. Marine and combat veteran with multiple tours in Iraq and Afghanistan, Chris drives organizational and program transformation initiatives for high-performing teams across the public, private, and non-profit sectors.